CHAPTER 2. CURRENT TRENDS
2.0 Introduction
This chapter examines a range of statistics in order to set out the baseline data, which has been considered during the formulation of the policies and objectives contained in the Draft County Development Plan. Trends examined relate to existing and projected population, demographic profiles, employment and education.
2.1 Population
The population of South Tipperary exceeded 83,000 in 2006 for the first time since 1926. This increase has been influenced by inward net migration that amounts to 7,236 persons and 8.7% of the total population for the County. The population growth for the County over the period 2002-2006 was 5.2% and represents an 18% share of the South East Region’s population. From Table 2.1 the growth rate of South Tipperary, in comparison with other south east counties, does not appear remarkable but this is viewed in the light of the growth attributed to the other counties of the south east being directly influenced by commuting patterns to Dublin and Cork.
The population growth of 5.2% between 2002-2006 in South Tipperary is viewed positively and indicative of likely sustained population growth in future periods. However, the population structure illustrated in Figure 7 below and the outward flow of indigenous population needs to be carefully addressed.
Table 2.1 Census Results 2002 - 2006
South Tipperary:
Year 2002, 79121, Year 2006, 83221, Actual Increase, 4100, % Increase, 5.2%
Waterford:
Year 2002, 101546, Year 2006, 107961, Actual Increase, 6415, % Increase, 6.3%
Carlow:
Year 2002, 46014, Year 2006, 50349, Actual Increase, 4335, % Increase, 9.4%
Kilkenny:
Year 2002, 80339, Year 2006, 87558, Actual Increase, 7219, % Increase, 9.0%
Wexford:
Year 2002, 116596, Year 2006, 131749, Actual Increase, 15153, % Increase, 13.0%
South East Region:
Year 2002, 423616, Year 2006, 460838, Actual Increase, 37222, % Increase, 8.8%
State:
Year 2002, 3917203, Year 2006, 4239848, Actual Increase, 322645, % Increase, 8.2%
2.1.1 Spatial Distribution of Population Growth
In relation to the five main settlements of Clonmel, Carrick on Suir, Tipperary Town, Cahir and Cashel there were trends of note over the 2002-20062 period. The urban areas recorded low levels of growth in Carrick, Tipperary Town and Cashel and there was a decline in population in the urban area of Clonmel. The greatest increase in numbers of population was in the environs of all the main towns.
Generally across South Tipperary, increases in population were recorded at District Electoral Division (DED) Level. There were five notable District Electoral Divisions (DEDs) where population declined; Clogheen, Ardfinnan, Bansha, Killenaule and Ballingarry.
- Clogheen DED recorded a net decrease in population of 29 persons that is accounted for by the loss of 41 persons from the village of Clogheen.
- Ardfinnan DED recorded a net decrease in population of 32 persons that is entirely accounted for by the loss of 32 persons from the village of Ardfinnan.
- Bansha DED recorded a net decrease in population of 39 persons whereby 30 of those persons are attributed to a loss from Bansha Village.
- Killenaule DED recorded a net decrease in population of 127 persons whereby 118 of those persons are attributed to a loss from Killenaule Village.
- Ballingarry DED recorded a net decrease in population of 28 persons but the village of Ballingarry alone lost 185 persons and while there were some increases in population in the adjoining DED’s it would appear that this loss is as a result of persons leaving the overall area.
It is critical therefore that a sustainable settlement strategy is implemented to address declining population in such settlements and to reinvigorate and reinforce these villages making them desirable places to live.
2.2 Population Projections
The 2006 Census figures highlighted unforeseen levels of population growth throughout the country. The population figures necessitated a review of national and regional population projections. The revised projection to 2020 for the South East Region is a 25.8% growth in the population of the region with 18% of the total population growth in the Region being attributable to South Tipperary, representing 104,376 persons in 2020.
Opportunities have been created for South Tipperary as a result of the designation of Cork City, Waterford City and Limerick City as Gateways in the NSS. The Council considers that the population share of 18% may be exceeded taking into account the development of the Gateways and the spin off for development in South Tipperary within the influence of the Gateways.
Over time greater connectivity and improved travel times, on both the N24 National Road and Waterford-Limerick rail link, between these centres of population will have a positive influence on the growth of South Tipperary’s towns. By recognising the opportunity South Tipperary’s location between the Gateways presents, and by supporting the Atlantic Gateways Initiative (along the N24 corridor in particular) it is considered that a population share of 20% of the South East Region is a desirable objective of the Draft County Development Plan. This revised figure of 20% represents a population potential of 115,994 persons by 2020.
Figure 2.1: Population Projections
2.3 Population Structure & Profile
Figure 2.2 illustrates the Age Profile for South Tipperary for the last three census periods.
Figure 2.2: Age Profile 1996-2006
In 1996 the 10-19 age bracket consisted of 14,216 persons and 10 years later the 20-29 age bracket consists of 11,503 persons, a shortfall of 2,713 persons. This fall off would most likely be accounted for through out migration for third level education or employment purposes over the period.
Table 2.2 allows for greater analysis of the age brackets 10-34 from 1996-2006. The age brackets have been coloured coded to allow each group of the population be tracked as their position in the relevant age bracket changes. In 1996, the age bracket 10-14 accounted for 7,219 persons. Ten years later this age bracket (now the 20-24 age group) accounted for 5,619 persons. The lack of a university in the South East Region must be seen as a factor in this outflow.
Table 2.2 10-34 Age Cohorts
Age Bracket: 10-14, Year 1996, 7219, Year 2002, 6219, Year 2006, 5916.
Age Bracket: 15-19, Year 1996, 6997, Year 2002, 6484, Year 2006, 5817.
Age Bracket: 20-24, Year 1996, 5052, Year 2002, 5326, Year 2006, 5619.
Age Bracket: 25-29, Year 1996, 4847, Year 2002, 5226, Year 2006, 5884.
Age Bracket: 30-34, Year 1996, 5200, Year 2002, 5586, Year 2006, 5958.
It is noted that between 1996-2006 for the age brackets 20-34 the numbers have increased from 5052 to 5958 which indicates persons returning after 3rd level education and also inward migration (from within and outside the State). The age groupings 35-64 shows steady increase, consistent with the increasing age profile for the State as a whole and reflects an ageing population.
On the basis of the foregoing, it is vital that strong 3rd level educational facilities are provided in the County and within the Region. South Tipperary County Council supports the strengthening of Tipperary Institute (TI) and the establishment of a university in the South East Region. Furthermore, the Council recognises the necessity to provide quality employment opportunities within South Tipperary for persons who wish to return or relocate to South Tipperary. The creation of employment opportunities will be complemented by the strengthening of South Tipperary’s perception as a desirable place to live through the implementation of the Settlement Strategy set out in Chapter 3.
2.3.1 In Migration
The population composition in South Tipperary has also changed over the period 2002-2006. The number of persons originally from outside the state has increased to 8.7% of the County’s population as outlined at Section 2.1 above, with the highest number of foreign nationals residing in the five main towns of the County as illustrated in Table 2.3 below.
Table 2.3 Persons in South Tipperary’s main settlements originally from outside the State
Clonmel:
Year 2002, Foreign Nationals= 228, Total= 16132, % of Total= 1.41, Year 2006, Foreign Nationals= 461, Total= 16274, % of Total= 2.83.
Carrick:
Year 2002, Foreign Nationals= 90, Total= 5542, % of Total= 1.62, Year 2006, Foreign Nationals= 148, Total= 5856, % of Total= 2.53.
Tipperary:
Year 2002, Foreign Nationals= 60, Total= 4964, % of Total= 1.21, Year 2006, Foreign Nationals= 168, Total= 5065, % of Total= 3.32.
Cahir:
Year 2002, Foreign Nationals= 71, Total= 2794, % of Total= 2.54, Year 2006, Foreign Nationals= 243, Total= 3381, % of Total= 7.19.
Cashel:
Year 2002, Foreign Nationals= 32, Total= 2770, % of Total= 1.16, Year 2006, Foreign Nationals= 150, Total= 2936, % of Total= 5.11.
Statistical information relating to the employment/occupation of these in-migrants is not available. However, given the increased numbers engaged in construction and retail/services it is likely that these occupations form the greater number of in-migrants. These areas of employment are the most vulnerable to economic fluctuations and likely to give rise to unemployment. It is necessary therefore, that the occupational groups as outlined in Table 2.5 below be reviewed on a precautionary basis to ensure a continued and vibrant employment/ occupational structure for the County’s population.
2.4 Employment
Table 2.43 below illustrates that 65% of the total potential workforce (those aged 15-64) are in employment with 5% of the County’s population identified as unemployed.
Table 2.4 Labour Force
Total in Employment 2006= 35792, As % of Population aged 15-64= 65%
Total Unemployed 2006= 2859, As % of Population aged 15-64= 5%
Total Labour Force 2006= 38651, As % of Population aged 15-64= 70%
Total not in Labour Force 2006= 16391, As % of Population aged 15-64= 30%
Population aged 15-64 2006= 55042, As % of Population aged 15-64= 100%
Table 2.5 provides comparison between a range of occupational groups in South Tipperary across the two Census periods of 2002 and 2006.
Table 2.5 Occupation Group
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing,
Year 2002= 4006, Year 2006= 3926, % Change= -2.0%,
Mining Quarrying and Turf Production,
Year 2002= 179, Year 2006= 244, % Change= +36.3%,
Manufacturing Industry,
Year 2002= 5539, Year 2006= 5628, % Change= +1.6%,
Electricity Gas and Water Supply,
Year 2002= 141, Year 2006= 148, % Change= +5.0%,
Construction,
Year 2002= 3249, Year 2006= 4789, % Change= +47.4%,
Wholesale and Retail Trade,
Year 2002= 4186, Year 2006= 4740, % Change= +13.2%,
Hotels and Restaurants,
Year 2002= 1428, Year 2006= 1631, % Change= +14.2%,
Transport Storage and Communications,
Year 2002= 1228, Year 2006= 1268, % Change= +3.2%,
Banking and Financial Services,
Year 2002= 695, Year 2006= 726, % Change= +4.4%,
Real Estate, Renting and Business Activities,
Year 2002= 1550, Year 2006= 1746, % Change= +12.6%,
Public Administration and Defence,
Year 2002= 1482, Year 2006= 1506, % Change= +1.6%,
Education,
Year 2002= 1960, Year 2006= 2273, % Change= +15.9%,
Health and Social Work,
Year 2002= 2740, Year 2006= 3796, % Change= +38.5%,
Other Community, Social and Personal Services Activities,
Year 2002= 1196, Year 2006= 1621, % Change= +35.5%,
Industry Not Stated,
Year 2002= 1757, Year 2006= 1750, % Change= -0.4%,
Total at Work,
Year 2002= 31336, Year 2006= 35792, % Change= +14.0%,
Total Population,
Year 2002= 79121, Year 2006= 83221, % Change= +5.2%,
Percentage of Total Population at Work,
Year 2002= 39.6%, Year 2006= 43.0%, % Change= +3.4%,
From examination of this Table the following points are of note;
- The number of people directly involved in agriculture continues to decline, although this decline is marginal.
- The proportion of people dependent on the manufacturing sector has remained stable over the 10-year period, with marginal growth.
- The proportion of people involved in the construction sector has almost doubled over the 10-year period.
- Employment in the Financial Services is increasing, though from a low threshold.
- Tourism employment represented by hotels and restaurants has also increased its employment share.
- Health and social services has shown a significant increase in the 4-year period 2002-2006.
The division of sectoral employment is of some concern in that the largest growth area is in construction, which can be very volatile and seasonal. The higher value added occupations; banking and financial, education, research and development - while increasing in importance, are coming from relatively low employment thresholds. Tourism employment is also relatively low compared with other traditional employment sectors such as agriculture.
The county is home to a number of major industrial employers, which assists greatly in retaining and strengthening the retail and service functions of our towns. The value of small and medium employers to South Tipperary is also fully recognised.
2.5 Unemployment
From table 2.4, 5% of the total workforce is identified as unemployed in Census 2006. Figure 2.3 below shows the breakdown of unemployment among the different age cohorts within South Tipperary in comparison with the South East Region and the State. It is noted that the unemployment rate within the age brackets 15-24 is higher in South Tipperary than both the Region and the State. In the higher age groups 35-64, the unemployment levels at County level outperform the Region and the State.
Figure 2.3: Unemployed
2.6 Education
Figure 2.4 outlines the educational status of the workforce of South Tipperary and demonstrates that the proportion of the labour force educated to at least upper secondary level is above the national average. The participation rates in third level education are lower in South Tipperary than that for the State as a whole. The continued support and expansion of the Tipperary Institute will provide further educational opportunities at the local level.
Figure 2.4: Levels of Education Completed by Population
CT 1: Population/Education/Employment
It is the policy of the Council to;
- Foster population growth in settlements; the aim being to achieve 20% of the South East Region’s population share in the County;
- Provide quality employment for all sectors of the population
- Work with relevant agencies to assist in addressing third level educational deficits and provide an attractive, thriving environment for all residents.
- Support the expansion of Tipperary Institute as a third level college of excellence.
- Support the development of a University in the South East Region.
